Guides on prediction market arbitrage, Polymarket, and Kalshi.
What Polymarket's documentation says about maker rebates (funded by taker fees, paid daily) and liquidity rewards (scored on resting orders), and what it means for the Polymarket leg of an arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readWhat Kalshi's documentation says about order groups: a contracts limit over a rolling 15-second window, the Active and Triggered states, and why a group can protect a two-leg arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readWhat Polymarket's documentation says about geographic restrictions: fully blocked regions, close-only regions, the frontend-only list, and the public geoblock endpoint. Check the current list before you rely on it.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readA snapshot of the public /proof numbers on 4 Nov 2026: 1,031 feed readings across 23 pairs, a median net edge of 0.59%, and a median of 222 days until resolution. What the data does and does not say.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readWhat Kalshi's documentation says about settlement bounds and settlement floors for scalar markets, the worked example, and why they are relevant to anyone pairing a Kalshi market with another platform.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readKalshi's documented Thursday maintenance window, the difference between a trading pause and an exchange pause, and the CancelOrderOnPause setting, and why they matter for a two-leg arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readWhat Kalshi's documentation says about settlement: $1 per winning contract, only net positions settle, timing can vary, settlement fees for simple yes/no markets, and what it means for the Kalshi leg of an arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 4 min readHow Polymarket organises events, markets, condition IDs, question IDs and Yes/No token IDs according to its documentation, and why a bot must pick the right identifier when pairing with Kalshi.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readWhat Polymarket's documentation says happens after a market resolves: trading stops, winning tokens redeem for $1.00, losing tokens go to $0, and YES plus NO tokens can be merged, and what this means for the Polymarket leg of an arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readHow Kalshi organises series, events and markets, what the ticker conventions are, and why Kalshi's documentation says not to infer relationships by parsing ticker strings, for matching with Polymarket.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readWhat Polymarket's market WebSocket channel offers according to its documentation: subscription, order book and price_change events, tick size changes, the PING heartbeat, and how it compares with polling for a Kalshi arbitrage bot.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readKalshi's documented market statuses (active, closed, determined, finalized and more), what the settlement timer is, and how the lifecycle affects when capital is released in a Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readWhat Polymarket's tick size and minimum order size are, the price and size precision rules in its documentation, and how they affect a two-leg Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readWhat Polymarket negative risk markets are, how converting a No share into Yes shares in every other outcome works, and what it means for Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readHow Kalshi's token-based API limits work: read and write buckets, burst capacity, batch costs, WebSocket connection caps and 429 errors, and what they mean for arbitrage bots.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readThe Kalshi order book returns only YES and NO bids. How a NO bid becomes a YES ask, how to compute the spread, and why it matters for Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage.
November 4, 2026 · 5 min readFor Polymarket Kalshi arbitrage you need cash on both platforms. What the official docs say about Kalshi deposit methods and holds, and how Polymarket pUSD deposits and withdrawals work.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readPolymarket Kalshi arbitrage ties up capital until both contracts settle. What the official docs say about settlement timing and disputes, and how to compare returns over time.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readPolymarket Kalshi arbitrage needs two fills. Which order types each platform offers (FOK, FAK, IOC, GTC), what delays apply, and how order choice changes leg risk.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readWhat complete-set arbitrage on Polymarket is, how split and merge make YES + NO worth $1, and how it differs from cross-venue arbitrage with Kalshi.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readHow Polymarket resolves markets with UMA, what a dispute does to your timeline, and a checklist to catch resolution mismatch before pairing it with Kalshi.
November 4, 2026 · 7 min readHow Kalshi fees are calculated: the 0.07 × C × P × (1 − P) taker formula, maker fees, rounding to the cent, and what it means for arbitrage net edge.
November 4, 2026 · 6 min readSports arbitrage on prediction markets: how matching Kalshi and Polymarket game contracts differs from sportsbook arbitrage, and the risks to know.
November 1, 2026 · 6 min readAI agents in trading in 2026: what actually works (matching, monitoring, rules-based execution) and what doesn't (LLM price prediction).
October 26, 2026 · 6 min readHow to calculate net edge after fees on a Polymarket and Kalshi pair: Polymarket's category taker fee formula, worked examples at different prices, and what changes when a leg is a maker order.
October 28, 2026 · 5 min readA buyer's checklist for any prediction market arbitrage scanner or bot: how it matches markets, whether it shows net edge after fees, data freshness, order book depth, resolution rules and what it publishes.
October 27, 2026 · 5 min readA worked example of prediction market arbitrage after fees: how to subtract the Polymarket taker fee (C × feeRate × p × (1 − p)) and the Kalshi fee from a gross spread, with break-even tables.
October 27, 2026 · 4 min readPrediction market liquidity explained: what order book depth actually limits, why it caps profit more than spread size, and how to size a position around it.
October 18, 2026 · 6 min readDo Polymarket and Kalshi limit winning traders like sportsbooks do? What we found on account limits, position caps and conduct rules.
October 11, 2026 · 5 min readPolymarket US explained: the CFTC-licensed US exchange vs the international platform, what changes for US traders, and what it means for arbitrage.
October 11, 2026 · 5 min readPolymarket alternatives in 2026: Kalshi, PredictIt and newer venues compared on regulation, API access and fees, and which can run arbitrage.
October 11, 2026 · 6 min readKalshi alternatives in 2026 if you're in a restricted country or want another venue: Polymarket, PredictIt and what each means for arbitrage.
October 11, 2026 · 6 min readWhat are event contracts? How this CFTC-regulated asset class works on Kalshi and Polymarket, and why it's what makes cross-platform arbitrage possible.
October 11, 2026 · 7 min read5 Kalshi trading strategies ranked by risk in 2026 — from market-neutral arbitrage to momentum scalping, and which one actually fits your capital.
October 4, 2026 · 7 min readPolymarket fees explained: the category-based taker fee, no gas cost to trade, deposit and withdrawal costs, and what it means for your arbitrage net edge in 2026.
September 28, 2026 · 6 min readKalshi vs PredictIt in 2026: regulation, position caps, fees on profits and withdrawals, API access, and why only one platform supports arbitrage.
September 21, 2026 · 6 min readCan Europeans trade Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026? Kalshi's restricted list, Polymarket's EU blocks, and what's left for cross-platform arbitrage.
September 21, 2026 · 7 min readThe Polymarket API explained: CLOB order books, wallet-signed auth, WebSocket feeds, and what it takes to place orders or build a trading bot in 2026.
September 21, 2026 · 7 min readThe Kalshi API explained: endpoints, authentication, rate limits, and what it takes to build a trading bot or arbitrage agent in 2026.
September 6, 2026 · 7 min readPolymarket trading bots compared: arbitrage bots that lock in a fixed spread regardless of outcome vs directional bots that bet on outcomes. How each works and which fits you.
September 2, 2026 · 7 min readHow to track Kalshi P&L for taxes: export the trade CSV correctly, avoid the ÷100 cents trap, and reconcile every arbitrage leg.
September 2, 2026 · 7 min readIs prediction market arbitrage drying up in 2026? What's happening to Polymarket/Kalshi spreads as competition grows, and where real edge remains.
August 27, 2026 · 7 min readWhy execution speed and latency decide prediction market arbitrage profit — manual traders vs automated agents, explained.
July 26, 2026 · 7 min readDo you need a VPS for prediction market arbitrage? Latency requirements, what a VPS actually gives you, and the case for hosted execution in 2026.
June 17, 2026 · 7 min readWhat a Kalshi arbitrage bot actually does, how it finds cross-platform edges, realistic return expectations, and risks to know before trading in 2026.
June 11, 2026 · 7 min readThe best crypto arbitrage trading bots in 2026 compared: Arbitrage Agent (prediction markets, ~0.7% median net edge), Pionex, 3Commas, Hummingbot. Which one actually makes money?
June 1, 2026 · 11 min readHonest comparison of the best arbitrage betting software in 2026: OddsJam, RebelBetting, BetBurger, Surebet, and Arbitrage Agent for prediction markets. Find the right tool for your strategy.
June 1, 2026 · 10 min readHow are prediction market arbitrage profits taxed in 2026? US tax treatment for Kalshi and Polymarket, short vs long-term capital gains, record-keeping, and what to tell your accountant.
May 30, 2026 · 8 min readEverything you need to know about automated arbitrage agents for Polymarket and Kalshi in 2026. How they work, what to look for, and how to get started.
May 2, 2026 · 8 min readComplete guide to Polymarket arbitrage in 2026. How to find price gaps, execute trades, and automate the process for consistent returns.
May 2, 2026 · 6 min readLearn exactly how prediction market arbitrage works between Polymarket and Kalshi. Step-by-step guide with real examples and profit calculations.
May 2, 2026 · 6 min readMost prediction market traders lose money trying to predict outcomes. Here are 3 proven strategies to profit in 2026 — including one that doesn't require being right.
May 19, 2026 · 7 min readCan prediction market arbitrage generate real passive income? Honest numbers, setup requirements, and what $1K–$10K deployed actually returns monthly.
May 19, 2026 · 7 min readComplete beginner's guide to using an arbitrage agent on Polymarket and Kalshi. No coding, no predictions, no experience needed.
May 19, 2026 · 8 min readIs cross-platform arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi legal? Breakdown of the regulatory landscape, jurisdiction rules, and what you need to know before trading.
May 24, 2026 · 6 min readDetailed comparison of Kalshi vs Polymarket fees, liquidity depth, and market coverage — and what it means for cross-platform arbitrage profitability.
May 24, 2026 · 6 min readStep-by-step guide to finding and executing prediction market arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi — manually and with an agent.
Apr 27, 2026 · 7 min readManual arbitrage on Polymarket is nearly impossible to scale. Here's what a proper arbitrage agent does differently — and what to look for.
Apr 27, 2026 · 6 min readAn on-chain study of 2.5M Polymarket wallets found 84% of traders in the red. We break down why — and how the other 16% play a different game entirely.
Apr 27, 2026 · 5 min readEverything you need to know about prediction market arbitrage strategy — the math, the risks, and how to automate it across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Apr 27, 2026 · 7 min readThe same binary event — different prices on Polymarket and Kalshi. Here's why that gap exists and how to profit from it.
Apr 27, 2026 · 5 min readIs prediction market arbitrage truly risk-free? An honest breakdown of what the risks actually are — and how to manage each one.
Apr 27, 2026 · 5 min readRealistic expectations for prediction market arbitrage returns — spread sizes, frequency, capital requirements, and actual monthly numbers.
Apr 27, 2026 · 5 min read© 2026 Arbitrage Agent. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk of loss.