What is Arbitrage Agent?

Arbitrage Agent is an automated Polymarket arbitrage agent and Kalshi arbitrage agent. It continuously scans both prediction markets for price discrepancies and executes trades automatically to capture risk-free profit.

How does the prediction market arbitrage tool work?

The agent monitors YES/NO prices across Polymarket and Kalshi. When the combined cost of buying both sides of a contract is below $1.00, an arbitrage opportunity exists. The agent executes both legs simultaneously, locking in a guaranteed profit regardless of outcome.

Is it safe to use a Polymarket arbitrage agent?

Pure arbitrage is low-risk because you buy both sides of a binary outcome. The risk is essentially zero once both legs are filled. Arbitrage Agent includes risk controls, position size limits, and dry-run mode for testing before going live.

Does the Kalshi arbitrage agent execute real trades?

Yes — it connects to your Kalshi and Polymarket accounts via API keys and executes real trades. Start in dry-run mode to verify the setup before enabling live trading.

What returns can I expect?

Arbitrage edges on prediction markets typically range from 1% to 6% per trade. The agent scans 2,400+ markets continuously, so opportunities compound over time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Do I need coding skills to use the arbitrage agent?

No. Arbitrage Agent is fully managed — provide your API keys, set your position size, and the agent handles everything else. No coding, no manual monitoring.

Which prediction markets does the agent support?

Currently Polymarket and Kalshi. We are actively working on adding more venues to increase the number of arbitrage opportunities available.

How do I get started?

Join the waitlist to get early access. Once approved, connect your Polymarket and Kalshi accounts, configure risk settings, and the agent starts scanning immediately.

Prediction Market Arbitrage as Passive Income: A Realistic 2026 Guide

The phrase "passive income" gets thrown around loosely, but prediction market arbitrage is one of the few strategies that genuinely qualifies — once the system is running, it requires near-zero daily input. Here's an honest breakdown of what that looks like in practice.

What makes arbitrage "passive"?

Unlike directional trading — which requires research, conviction, and constant monitoring — arbitrage is mechanical. The process is simple:

Bot scans for price discrepancies across Polymarket and Kalshi
When combined cost of both sides < $1.00, it executes both trades
Profit is locked in at execution, regardless of outcome
Contracts settle automatically when the event resolves

With an automated bot like Arbitrage Agent, steps 1–4 happen without any manual intervention. You check your dashboard periodically, adjust position limits if needed, and collect the returns.

Realistic monthly income by capital tier

Based on average market conditions (20+ trades/month, 2% average net edge after fees):

$1,000 deployed: ~$16/month ($192/year) — 1.6% monthly return
$3,000 deployed: ~$48/month ($576/year) — coffee money that adds up
$5,000 deployed: ~$80/month ($960/year) — covers a subscription or two
$10,000 deployed: ~$160/month ($1,920/year) — meaningful supplemental income
$25,000 deployed: ~$400/month ($4,800/year) — starts to move the needle

These are conservative estimates. During high-activity periods (elections, major economic events), opportunity frequency and spread sizes both increase significantly.

Setup time: what it actually takes

Initial setup takes about 30 minutes:

Create and fund Polymarket + Kalshi accounts (15 min)
Connect API keys to Arbitrage Agent (5 min)
Configure risk settings — position limits, max exposure per market (5 min)
Run in dry-run mode for a day to verify everything works (5 min to enable)
Switch to live trading

After that, ongoing maintenance is <5 minutes per week: check the dashboard, verify trades are executing, ensure both platform accounts have sufficient balance.

What could go wrong?

Arbitrage is low-risk, not zero-risk. Being honest about the downsides:

Execution risk: One leg fills, the other doesn't. Arbitrage Agent mitigates this with simultaneous execution, but it can happen on extremely thin markets.
Platform risk: If Polymarket or Kalshi has downtime, the bot can't trade. Capital is safe but idle.
Low-activity periods: When markets are quiet, opportunities are fewer. Returns aren't perfectly consistent month to month.
Fee changes: If platforms raise fees, net edges compress. The bot auto-calculates net edge after fees, so it won't take unprofitable trades.

Arbitrage vs other passive income sources

How does it compare to alternatives?

High-yield savings (5% APY): ~$42/month on $10K. Safe but slow. Arbitrage offers 3–5x the return.
Dividend stocks (3–4% yield): ~$30/month on $10K. Requires stock market exposure. Arbitrage is market-neutral.
Crypto staking (4–8%): ~$50–67/month on $10K. Requires holding volatile assets. Arbitrage doesn't carry directional risk.
Prediction market arbitrage (15–25%): ~$125–200/month on $10K. Higher returns, market-neutral, but limited by liquidity.

The trade-off is liquidity constraints — you can put $1M into a savings account but not into prediction market arbitrage. The strategy works best with $1K–$25K.

Is it truly passive?

On a scale of 1 (dividend stocks) to 10 (day trading), prediction market arbitrage with an automated bot scores about a 2. The bot does the work. You monitor it. That's as close to passive as active markets get.

Get started with Arbitrage Agent and put your capital to work.