Most arbitrage examples use binary contracts that pay $1 or $0. Kalshi also lists markets with a scalar payout, and its documentation describes settlement bounds for some of them. This article summarises that documentation. It is not trading advice, and the details can change, so check the current documentation.
The idea
Kalshi's documentation says that certain markets have a scalar payout and can be partly determined before the event ends. The settlement floor is the minimum payout per contract to YES holders. Its example is a government shutdown market that settles at $0.10 for each day the shutdown lasts, up to 10 days: after 3 days, Kalshi may raise the floor to a guaranteed $0.30. The documentation also carries a note that settlement floors are not live yet.
The fields and the mechanics
Markets include settlement_bounds_type, which is default or floor. Default means Kalshi will never apply a floor. Floor markets also have settlement_floor_dollars, starting at $0. When the floor rises, YES holders' available balance goes up by the increase times their contracts, and the floor does not affect a NO holder's balance. At settlement, YES holders receive the settled value minus the floor, per contract, and NO holders receive $1 minus the settled value.
Rare lowering
In rare cases Kalshi may lower the floor because of a settlement source correction, which reduces YES holders' available balance.
Why a pair needs care
A scalar market pays a value between zero and a maximum, not simply $1 or $0, so it is a different instrument from a binary contract elsewhere. Before pairing, check settlement_bounds_type and the market rules, and apply the checks in UMA disputes and resolution mismatch. For how Kalshi payouts and timing work in the ordinary case, see the settlement article.
Where Arbitrage Agent fits
Arbitrage Agent matches markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, checks the resolution rules on both sides, and shows the result in a live feed with a step-by-step guide for both legs. You place the orders yourself, and the final check of the details is still yours. See the plans or start with the Starter plan.
Related articles
- Kalshi Market Settlement
- Kalshi Series, Events and Tickers
- Event Contracts Explained
- Polymarket UMA Disputes and Resolution Mismatch
Key terms: Event Contract · Resolution Risk