In a cross-platform arbitrage your two positions are not paid at the same moment. The Kalshi leg follows the exchange's market lifecycle, and knowing the statuses tells you when trading stops, when the result is known and when your capital is released. This article summarises Kalshi's documented lifecycle. It is not trading advice, and the details can change, so check the current documentation.
The statuses
Kalshi's lifecycle guide says markets follow a path from creation through trading to determination and settlement. The documented statuses are: initialized (created but not yet open; it becomes active when the open time passes), active (open for trading), inactive (temporarily deactivated by the exchange, trading paused but not closed), closed (past the close time, no new orders, awaiting determination) and determined (the result is known and a settlement timer is running). The market object in the API reference also lists disputed, amended and finalized.
Closing early and the settlement timer
The guide notes that a market can close before its scheduled close time, including before determination. The API's market object carries can_close_early, an early_close_condition field and a settlement_timer_seconds value, so the timing of a given contract is something you read from the contract, not assume.
Why this matters for arbitrage
Your capital on Kalshi is tied up until the market is finalized, and it is usually the slower of the two legs that sets when you can reuse the money. A disputed or amended status is a signal to stop and read what changed. Combine this with the settlement timing on Polymarket in the capital lockup article, and with the resolution-rule check in UMA disputes and resolution mismatch.
Where Arbitrage Agent fits
Arbitrage Agent matches markets across Kalshi and Polymarket, checks the resolution rules on both sides, and shows the result in a live feed with a step-by-step guide for both legs. You place the orders yourself, and the final check of the details is still yours. See the plans or start with the Starter plan.
Related articles
- Capital Lockup and Settlement Time
- Kalshi API Guide
- Event Contracts Explained
- Polymarket UMA Disputes and Resolution Mismatch
Key terms: Event Contract · Resolution Risk