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Seasonal spikes around playoffs, championships, and major tournaments.
Sports markets cover game outcomes, championship winners, individual player performance, and tournament results. Volume is highly seasonal — concentrated around playoffs, finals, and major events like the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, and World Cup. Outside peak periods, liquidity is thinner.
Sports markets attract high-conviction betters (fans) who may misprice outcomes relative to statistical models. Polymarket tends to attract a more global audience; Kalshi attracts more US-centric sports fans. These different demographics create persistent price divergences on the same game or championship outcome, especially in the final hours before an event.
Typical gross spread
1–4%
Peak spread (pre-game / live)
4–9%
Opportunity frequency
Variable — 2–12/day during season
Liquidity
Deep on major US sports, thin on niche
Sports outcomes are almost always unambiguous — a team wins or loses. The main edge case is contracts that resolve on overtime results or specific score thresholds — always verify both platforms use the same resolution criteria for the same game.
Arbitrage Agent monitors all sports markets automatically
4,812 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi — detection and execution under 400ms.
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