Politics Markets

Political event markets cover elections, votes, appointments, approval ratings, and geopolitical outcomes. They are the most actively traded category on both platforms — attracting high volume from retail traders, professional forecasters, and media-adjacent participants.

Political markets attract traders with strong, often conflicting priors — partisans on both sides frequently misprice outcomes relative to base rates. This creates persistent divergences between Polymarket (international, crypto-native audience) and Kalshi (US-regulated, broader demographic). During high-activity periods like election cycles, price gaps of 3–8% are common.

• US presidential election winner
• Senate/House seat outcomes
• Presidential approval rating thresholds
• EU election results
• Geopolitical conflict outcomes
• Fed chair appointment / confirmation votes

Political outcomes are usually unambiguous — a candidate wins or loses. Kalshi and Polymarket both resolve based on official certification. Edge cases exist for recounts and contested elections, but the vast majority resolve cleanly.

Arbitrage Agent monitors all politics markets automatically

4,812 markets across Polymarket and Kalshi — detection and execution under 400ms.