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Economics Markets

Kalshi's strongest category — regulated economic indicators with clean resolution.

Overview

Economics markets cover Federal Reserve rate decisions, CPI, GDP, unemployment, and other official economic data releases. This is the category where Kalshi has a structural advantage: as a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi was designed specifically for financial event contracts, and economic indicators are its most liquid markets.

Why Arbitrage Opportunities Exist Here

Economic markets attract professional traders who model outcomes from macro data. Polymarket's economic markets are thinner than Kalshi's, which means prices can diverge significantly — especially in the hours before a scheduled data release. The divergence is driven by different trader composition, not information asymmetry, making it pure arbitrage.

Spread Profile

Typical gross spread

1–3%

Peak spread (pre-release)

3–7%

Opportunity frequency

Medium — 3–6/day

Liquidity

Very deep on Fed decisions, good on CPI/jobs

Example Events

Fed funds rate decisions (FOMC meetings)
CPI / core inflation thresholds
Non-farm payroll outcomes
GDP growth rate brackets
Unemployment rate thresholds
Treasury yield milestones

Resolution Risk

Low Resolution Risk

Economics markets have the lowest resolution risk of any category. Data releases are from official sources (BLS, BEA, Fed) with no ambiguity. Both platforms resolve against the same published figures. Ideal for arbitrage from a risk perspective.

Related Glossary Terms

Kelly Criterion →Complement Arbitrage →