Spreadsheet-based arbitrage tracking vs Arbitrage Agent: why manual logging is useful for learning but unworkable for execution.
| Feature | Arbitrage Agent | Spreadsheet Tracking |
|---|---|---|
| Opportunity detection | Real-time, automated | Manual, periodic |
| Markets covered | 4,812 simultaneously | Whatever you check |
| Execution | Automated, <400ms | Manual, minutes |
| P&L tracking | Automatic dashboard | Manual entry |
| Fee calculation | Auto per trade | Formula-based, error-prone |
| Event matching | AI (99.2% precision) | Manual visual check |
| Time required | <5 min/week | Hours per week |
| Cost | From $19/mo | $0 (but significant time) |
Some traders use spreadsheets to track prediction market arbitrage opportunities — logging prices from both platforms, calculating spreads and net edges with formulas, and manually recording trades for P&L tracking.
Spreadsheets are genuinely useful for learning the mechanics. Setting up your own edge calculator forces you to understand fees, spread calculations, and position sizing in a way that using a tool doesn't.
As an execution method, spreadsheets don't work. By the time you've entered prices from both platforms and calculated whether an opportunity exists, the window has usually closed. Arbitrage windows last 30–200 seconds; spreadsheet workflows take minutes.
Arbitrage Agent monitors 4,812 binary event markets across Polymarket and Kalshi in real time via WebSocket. AI-powered semantic matching (99.2% precision) links identical events across platforms — even when titles differ completely.
When a price gap creates an arbitrage opportunity, both legs execute in parallel under 400ms. A circuit breaker auto-unwinds if one leg fails, ensuring zero directional exposure. The agent is fully non-custodial — your capital stays on Kalshi and Polymarket at all times.
Difference 1
A spreadsheet tells you what you should have traded 5 minutes ago. Arbitrage Agent tells you what to trade right now — and then trades it. The value of arbitrage is in capturing opportunities when they exist, not in recording them after they've closed.
Difference 2
Polymarket and Kalshi have different, sometimes complex fee structures. Spreadsheet formulas that haven't been updated after a fee change will give you wrong net edge numbers. Trading on a stale edge calculation means unknowingly taking unprofitable trades. Arbitrage Agent recalculates fees per-trade using live fee data.
Difference 3
A spreadsheet tracks what you intended to trade, not what actually happened. Slippage, partial fills, and circuit breaker events all affect actual P&L in ways that manual logging misses. Arbitrage Agent's dashboard shows real fills, real edge captured, and real P&L by trade.
When to choose Spreadsheet Tracking
When to choose Arbitrage Agent
Spreadsheets are a great learning tool and a fine way to paper-trade manually before committing capital. As a live execution or monitoring method, they're not competitive with automated tooling. Use them to learn, then graduate to a proper agent when you're ready to trade.
Can I use a spreadsheet to paper-trade arbitrage first?
Yes — and it's a good idea. Tracking hypothetical trades helps you understand the mechanics, verify your edge calculations, and build confidence before committing real capital. Arbitrage Agent also has a dry-run mode that does this automatically.
What formulas do I need for an arbitrage spreadsheet?
The core formula: net edge = (1 - YES_price - NO_price) - (YES_fee + NO_fee). Where YES_fee ≈ YES_price × 0.02 for Polymarket and NO_fee ≈ profit × 0.07 for Kalshi. Use the free Arbitrage Calculator at arbitrage-agent.com/calculator to check your math.
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